In the market that has suddenly heated up and then entered a period of fluctuation, investors are frequently taking profits when they can. "As soon as I broke even, I hurried to 'get off the bus'," "Those who redeemed when they broke even, their (products) have fallen again," "I didn't redeem, but instead increased my position"... First Financial randomly interviewed several investors, and many people are eager to redeem their funds after breaking even or making a small profit, while some investors are optimistic about the future market and choose to further increase their positions.

This also reflects to some extent that market sentiment is in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. According to First Financial's multi-channel understanding, fund managers also have different opinions on positions, with some optimistically increasing their positions, some conservatively reducing them, and some fund managers expressing temporary observation and choosing to stay put. In addition, some institutions have chosen to "pocket the profits" after the holiday, but there are also institutions that have the idea of redemption but have not yet taken action.

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"At this position, the profit and loss ratio for both bulls and bears is quite balanced, which is prone to intense competition," said industry insiders. There is no need to be pessimistic at the current position. However, after the index experienced a significant rise and then a series of adjustments, and the trading volume quickly shrank, it shows a more obvious trend of fluctuation and consolidation, which may take some time in the short term. After the sentiment and turnover exceeded expectations, it is recommended that investors should objectively view the stimulus policies.

The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is intense. Since late September, the A-share market has ushered in a rebound, and the net value of many actively managed equity funds has quickly rebounded. Wind data shows that from September 18th, when the market "bottomed out," to October 11th, 4,412 actively managed equity funds (including flexible allocation, stock-mixed, balanced mixed, and ordinary stock types; only calculating initial funds, the same below) recorded gains, accounting for more than 98%.

As of October 11th, among 4,478 actively managed equity funds, 2,763 products have a positive cumulative return this year, accounting for more than 60%. Among them, 219 products have a return of more than 20% within the year, with the highest being Western Lide Strategy Selection A, with a return of 50.98% from the beginning of the year to now.

In the process of the fund's net value quickly recovering, some investors who were previously "trapped" choose to take profits when they can, redeeming the products they hold after breaking even. "I've been buying funds for two years, and they've always been 'green'. It's not easy to break even, so I definitely ran first," individual investor Xiao Huang told First Financial, "Contentment is always happy, regardless of whether it rises later."

Another Xiao Jiang, who has many years of fund investment experience, said that the funds in his hand that have broken even or made a small profit have been sold in this round of the market, but he still holds some products that have not broken even. "There are still tens of thousands of losses, and I should buy some broad-based ETFs after redemption," he said.

After interviewing several investors and observing the fund discussion area, it was found that investors who are eager to "escape" after breaking even or making a small profit in this round of rebound are not the only ones. At the same time, the reporter learned from the fund company and the channel that the acceleration of investor redemption is also known to them. In addition, some institutions have chosen to "pocket the profits" after the holiday, but there are also institutions that have the idea of redemption but have not yet taken action.At the same time, many fund products are being accelerated in redemption and even helplessly liquidated during the process of net value rebound. For example, the Bank of China High-Quality Development Opportunities A (calculated by merging different shares) announced after the festival that as of September 30, the fund has been below 50 million yuan in net value of fund assets for 30 consecutive working days.

Data shows that as of the end of the second quarter, the merged scale of the Bank of China High-Quality Development Opportunities A fund was 52.07 million yuan, a decrease of 2.15 million yuan from 54.22 million yuan at the end of last year. During the period from September 18 to the end of the month, the fund rebounded by more than 22.7%. It can be seen that even if the fund has significantly recovered, the risk of liquidation of the fund has not decreased.

In addition, during this period, funds such as Debon New Return A, Caitong Asset Management New Energy Automobile A, and Bosera Research Return A have issued similar liquidation warnings. As of October 11, the rebound range of these funds since September 18 has been between 10% and 22%.

At the same time, there are also unfortunate ones who are liquidated and exited during the surge. According to the statistics of the First Financial Daily, as of October 14, 23 funds announced expiration, half of which are actively managed equity products. Among them, as of October 10, China Gold Ruihe A's net value of fund assets has been below 50 million yuan for 60 consecutive working days.

Looking at the mid-year data, the total scale of China Gold Ruihe A exceeded 70 million yuan. In the following 10 days, the fund was redeemed by more than 20 million yuan. According to statistics, the fund has risen by 8.97% in the past 60 working days, but it still could not avoid liquidation.

On the other hand, there are also initiatory products like Huaxia Cycle Drive A, Minsheng Jia Yin New Energy Smart Selection A, and Huafu National Tide Optimal Selection A, which have entered the termination process due to not reaching 200 million yuan after three years, and also missed the market.

"No need to be pessimistic at the current position"

In fact, just as the market rose rapidly before the festival, the high rebound and adjustment after the festival also made many investors waver: Has the investment logic changed? Should we increase positions or take profits? According to the reporter of the First Financial Daily, under the hot market, fund managers also have different opinions on positions.

Some fund managers are more optimistic about the sustainability of the market and choose to quickly increase positions; there are also conservatives who actively reduce positions, such as a rights fund manager in Shanghai who revealed that after the festival (October 8), the position has been reduced to 70%. In addition, some fund managers have adopted short-term swing operations, and some fund managers choose to stay put.

"In fact, the vast majority of public products have always been operating at a high position," said a public person in South China. Looking at past experiences, the second stage of a bull market will switch from a general rise to a structural market, which may require fund managers to not only do a good job in position management but also combine the situation of the basic and capital sides to select sectors and stocks."The configuration and positioning are not much different from before, and there will not be overly obvious changes." Another research analyst from a medium-sized fund company shares a similar view. He told Yicai that in the short term, sentiment has turned around and valuations have been lifted; however, after a general rise, it is likely that the market will look for directions to catch up. In the subsequent period of policy and data validation, the market may enter a period of fluctuation.

From the current point of view, Yang Gang, the Chief Economist at Golden Eagle Fund, stated that there is no need for pessimism at the current position. Since last week, investor sentiment has returned to rationality relatively quickly from a state of excitement, and a certain range of fluctuations has been formed in the process of multi-party game-playing. On the other hand, the positive policy attitude at the financial press conference last Saturday also gave the market more confidence.

"Continuous positive intensive policy guidance, combined with relatively positive risk sentiment at the market level, may lead to a more sustainable slow bull market in A-shares," Yang Gang believes. At present, the market has largely completed the first stage of over-correction in valuation based on the domestic policy shift, and will gradually enter a new phase where expected incremental policies will drive the economic fundamentals to stabilize and improve, and corporate profitability may improve, ultimately leading to a dual drive of profits and valuations.

In the view of Li Yun, the Professional Director of Investment Management Department I at China Merchants Fund, the recent significant ups and downs in the market mainly reflect the significant divergence in the overall expectations of both parties in the transaction. "After the market has undergone a significant rise and fall in the short term, it will gradually find a relatively balanced position and gradually stabilize, entering a relatively fluctuating stage. In the future, it is necessary to wait and observe new variables, including not only variables in the economic fundamentals but also the continued introduction and gradual implementation of a package of policies." He said.

Li Yun believes that, looking solely at the economic fundamentals, we have already entered the end of this downward cycle, and the macroeconomy has an inherent momentum to gradually stabilize and rise. In addition, with the gradual introduction and effective implementation of a package of macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, and various industrial policies, combined with the inherent cyclical upward momentum of the macroeconomy itself, the macroeconomy may usher in a recovery cycle under the drive of both forces, and in this case, the market may enter a new upward phase.

Ai Dingfei, the fund manager of Hua Shang Kechuang Board Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Fund, stated that, in conjunction with a series of previous policy trends, it can be considered that the market's policy bottom has been formed. Therefore, he is more inclined to believe that in the future, there will be a gradual implementation of policies, a gradual manifestation of effects, and a gradual realization of market expectations, so a healthy slow bull market may be on the horizon.