On October 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation for the first three quarters of 2024. Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, introduced at the press conference that according to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China's import and export volume was 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, of which exports were 18.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; imports were 13.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%.

In response to a question from a 21st Century Economic Report reporter about the export performance in September and the current foreign trade situation, Lu Dalian, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Statistical Analysis Department, said that in September, China's exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%, with a slowdown in growth rate.

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Regarding the reasons for the slowdown in foreign trade growth in September, Lu Dalian said it was mainly affected by some short-term accidental factors. First, two typhoons landed successively in the Yangtze River Delta in September, and the scheduling of the fleet after the typhoon is often postponed, causing a delay in exports. Second, due to the impact of global shipping difficulties, container shortages, and the expectation of negotiations on the expiration of contracts for dockworkers on the East Coast of the United States, the rhythm of enterprises' shipments and logistics has been adjusted. Data shows that the export peak season for some products in previous years was in the third quarter, but this year it was more than a month earlier. In addition, the export scale base in September last year was relatively high, ranking second only to December, and the high base also restricted the year-on-year growth rate in September this year. Overall, the slowdown in export growth in September is a normal data fluctuation within a short period.

Lu Dalian said that looking at the overall situation of the first three quarters, exports in September continued to grow for the sixth consecutive month, with a cumulative export scale of 18.62 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, reaching a historical high for the same period, and an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate for the same period in the past 10 years. According to preliminary calculations based on the latest data released by various economies, China's overall exports accounted for a stable and increasing share of the global market. Among the main export products, from small furniture and home appliances to large ships and containers, their share of the global market has increased to varying degrees, and China's exports still have strong resilience.

Lu Dalian said that at present, China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and the advantages of a solid manufacturing foundation, a complete range of industries, and a large-scale industrial system are still solid, and its position in the global industrial chain and supply chain pattern continues to be consolidated. The results of a recent survey of more than 800 major export enterprises across the country show that 69% of enterprises reported that exports in the fourth quarter were flat or increased. Overall, there is still confidence in exports in the fourth quarter.

The import and export value in the first three quarters "rose steadily"

Customs data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value exceeded 32 trillion yuan for the first time, with 10.15 trillion yuan, 11 trillion yuan, and 11.17 trillion yuan achieved in each quarter, respectively.

Bai Ming, a member of the Academic Committee of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21st Century Economic Report reporter that in the face of a complex external environment, China's import and export achieved steady growth in the first three quarters of this year, and the total import and export value "rose steadily", which had a positive driving effect on national economic growth.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's private enterprises' import and export volume was 17.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, accounting for 55% of the total foreign trade value, and increased by 2.1 percentage points. Foreign-invested enterprises' import and export volume was 9.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and increased for two consecutive quarters.

Bai Ming pointed out that from the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the rapid growth and increased proportion of private enterprises' import and export continue to play the role of the "main force" in foreign trade. At the same time, the stabilization of foreign enterprises' import and export is even more commendable. Bai Ming said that as China accelerates the construction of pilot free trade zones and the Hainan Free Trade Port, continues to create a first-class market-oriented, rule-of-law, and international business environment, and forms a broader, wider, and deeper opening-up pattern, it will create a more superior environment for foreign investment development and promote foreign investment to take root and develop in the Chinese soil.In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to countries participating in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" amounted to 15.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with the proportion rising to 47.1%; imports and exports to other RCEP member countries reached 9.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, among which imports and exports to ASEAN were 5.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Bai Ming stated that the sustained growth in imports and exports with countries participating in the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" and other RCEP member countries has played an important role in stabilizing China's foreign trade, reflecting the effectiveness of China's forward-looking layout in the field of foreign trade.

In the first three quarters, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 11.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value. Among them, the export of high-end equipment increased by 43.4%, and the exports of integrated circuit automobiles, household appliances increased by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5% respectively. In addition, the export of traditional labor-intensive products was 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%. Bai Ming analyzed that from the perspective of export structure, the proportion of mechanical and electrical products is nearly 60%, and these products are generally considered to have a higher technological density. It is believed that in the future, China's mechanical and electrical products will not only have the "new three items" but also more representative "punch products".

Regarding the next stage of China's foreign trade situation, Bai Ming believes that although the current rise of global trade protectionism has brought certain risks and uncertainties to China's foreign trade development, there is still room for China's foreign trade development. Especially with the in-depth implementation of the strategy to enhance the function and role of pilot free trade zones, it will provide greater impetus for the high-quality development of foreign trade.

In September, the export growth rate slowed down slightly. Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in September, China's total import and export value was 3,747.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the total export value was 2,165.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 1.6%; the total import value was 1,582.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 2.0%. The trade surplus in September was 582.62 billion yuan.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said in an interview with 21st Century Economic Report that the slowdown in China's export growth rate in September was mainly due to extreme climate, international geopolitical conflicts, and strikes in some overseas ports, which caused significant disturbances to shipping and costs. In terms of US dollars, the export value in September was the third highest in the same period of history, and the total export value in the third quarter set a new high in the same period of history, reflecting stable export operations, strong resilience, and overall foreign trade fluctuations within a reasonable range. At present, China's exports are affected by factors such as uncertainty in global demand prospects, trade protectionism, international geopolitical conflicts, and intensified fluctuations in the global foreign exchange market.

In September, China's import growth rate decreased year-on-year, weaker than the export performance, mainly affected by the weak recovery of demand and the decline in import prices of goods such as energy and industrial raw materials. On the one hand, the continuous adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the low demand at the consumer end, the decline in industrial product prices, and the business pressure faced by enterprises have led to a weak willingness to expand raw material imports and inventory. On the other hand, influenced by concerns about the slowdown in the global economy, especially the sluggish manufacturing activities of major economies, the prices of energy and some raw materials have fallen, which also drags down China's overall import value. Looking at the growth in the quantity of imported goods, domestic demand is weak rather than declining, and at the same time, the implementation of domestic macro policy measures will gradually enhance consumption and investment momentum.

Zhou Maohua analyzed that from the trend, exports are expected to continue to expand moderately. Firstly, the global policy shift led by developed economies will help alleviate the risk of global economic recession and boost confidence in the recovery of the real economy; secondly, the traditional consumption peak season overseas and signs of a recovery in global consumer electronics will promote China's new energy and high-tech equipment manufacturing products to maintain a high level of export vitality. At the same time, China's foreign trade structure continues to optimize, and foreign trade products still have strong competitive advantages, and the foundation for stable operation of foreign trade remains solid.

From the trend, imports are expected to gradually improve. The release of domestic stock growth policy effects and the recent introduction of counter-cyclical adjustment incremental policies will have a significant stimulating effect on domestic consumption and domestic demand; the improvement of domestic real estate market expectations is also expected to stimulate the import demand for energy and other bulk commodities and consumer goods.