In the early hours of Thursday (October 10th), expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November have diminished, yet traders are still closely monitoring the U.S. CPI inflation data for September, which is due to be released on Thursday, for clues on the Fed's next move. The market generally anticipates that the overall CPI for September will rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the core CPI expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month. Additionally, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan has expressed her support for a slower pace of rate cuts, stating that she sees significant risks of inflation persisting above 2%.

Investors are also closely watching the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting minutes, hoping to gain further insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch Tool, the market currently estimates an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. Moreover, the slowing trend of U.S. inflation also provides the Fed with additional room for further rate cuts.

Following the release of the non-farm employment data, the U.S. Dollar Index has continued to strengthen, setting a record for the longest consecutive increase in nearly three years. On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index continued to open low and rise high, fluctuating and surging, currently up by 0.28%,报价 at 102.8320. Spot gold continues to fluctuate and adjust, currently down by 0.46%,报价 at $2610.020 per ounce, approaching the $2600 threshold at one point during the session. Spot silver continues to decline, currently down by 0.68%,报价 at $30.460 per ounce.

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The oil market continues to fluctuate and retreat, with the development of the situation in the Middle East becoming clearer. Goldman Sachs believes that if Iran's supply is affected, oil prices may continue to rise, with an increase of $10-20. As of the time of writing, Brent crude futures are down by 0.63%,报价 at $76.690 per barrel, and the U.S. main continuous crude is down by 0.44%,报价 at $72.680 per barrel. In terms of news, the EIA has downgraded its oil demand and price forecasts, expecting global oil demand growth to be 1.2 million barrels per day next year, about 300,000 barrels per day lower than previously forecasted.

The prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a soft landing for the U.S. economy supports market sentiment. The three major stock indices opened with mixed movements in the U.S. night session, and after opening, all three indices collectively fluctuated and surged. The S&P 500 index set a historical record during the session, and then the index trends diverged, with the Nasdaq rising and falling back, while the Dow and S&P 500 fluctuated and rose.

As of the time of writing, the Dow is up by 0.92%, the Nasdaq is up by 0.45%, and the S&P 500 is up by 0.60%. On the market, there are gains of 5,285 and losses of 3,435. Among them, the lidar concept and the cruise concept lead the gains with an increase of over 6%, the lithium battery concept has an increase of over 5%, and the live broadcast concept and the mainland education concept lead the losses with a decrease of over 3%, the metal uranium concept, Tencent concept, and online video concept have losses of over 2%.

As the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes tonight are undoubtedly a key factor affecting the global trend, analysts generally believe that if the Fed minutes reveal more concerns about economic growth, the global market will usher in a new round of fluctuations, especially those markets that depend on risk assets.

At the same time, expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank are also brewing, with several ECB policymakers having expressed support for another rate cut at next week's meeting. Investors expect the ECB to lower the deposit rate to 3.25%, cutting rates by another 25 basis points. In an interview, the Governor of the Bank of France, Villeroy, stated: "The possibility of a rate cut is very high, and this will not be the last time."Looking at the popular industry sectors in the US stock market: Computer Hardware rose by 1.31%, Materials and Construction rose by 0.92%, Software Services rose by 0.91%, Transportation rose by 0.62%, Banking rose by 0.55%, Consumer Durables rose by 0.50%, Media rose by 0.47%, Telecommunications rose by 0.42%, Food and Beverage rose by 0.37%, Automobiles rose by 0.30%, Retail fell by 0.01%, Energy fell by 0.08%, Real Estate fell by 0.29%, Public Utilities fell by 0.43%, and the Internet fell by 1.56%.

US medium and long-term Treasury bonds continue to strengthen:

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.066%, with trading ranging from 3.969% to 4.066%.

The yield on the 3-year US Treasury bond increased by 2.9 basis points to 3.917%, with trading ranging from 3.844% to 3.926%.

The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond increased by 3.0 basis points to 4.009%, with trading ranging from 3.934% to 4.018%.

The yield on the 1-year US Treasury bond increased by 3.5 basis points to 4.245%, with trading ranging from 4.196% to 4.278%.

Popular US stocks: NVIDIA fell by 0.65%, Tesla rose by 0.11%, Apple rose by 1.25%, Microsoft rose by 0.78%, Intel rose by 0.28%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose by 5.31%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell by 1.41%, Meta fell by 1.01%, Amazon rose by 0.89%, Google fell by 2.27%, Micron Technology fell by 1.43%, Bank of America rose by 0.79%, JPMorgan Chase rose by 1.32%, General Motors rose by 3.67%, Coca-Cola rose by 0.40%, and Walmart rose by 0.60%.